Geopolitical cooperation between Iran and Russia
April 2022
Despite coming to power on the wave of a nationwide uprising against the monarchy, the Islamic regime in Iran quickly faced an existential conflict with the Iranian people and with countries in the region and the world.
Arising from medieval religious dogmas, the Iranian theocracy, imposed on the contemporary world in a historical event, could not be reconciled with the modern democratic societies. In response to demands by the Iranian people, the regime quickly reverted to oppressive measures and became a strategic destabilizing element in the region by inciting war and issuing terrorism under the name of “exporting the revolution.” With the demagogic slogan “neither the East nor the West”, Khomeini exercised his rule mainly with internal repression and foreign war, but practically covered his inability to meet the economic and cultural needs of the Iranian people with anti-American propaganda.
Currently facing serious internal challenges in the form of successive nationwide uprisings, the regime considers that by forming an alliance or at least moving closer to Russia and China, it can form a pole against the United States and somehow create a regional balance to ensure its survival. An example of this alliance, albeit temporary, was recorded in what happened in Syria in coordination between the Iranian and Russian regimes to suppress the Syrian resistance and consolidate the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In economic terms, concluding a 25-year contract with China and plundering Iranian oil in favor of this country or a contract with Russia for not extracting Iranian gas from the Caspian Sea and not export Iranian gas to the European market, follows from this look towards East.
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime is in global isolation and in the ongoing nuclear talks in Vienna wants the two countries to prevent a consensus in the Security Council against it and the use of trigger mechanisms.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Iranian regime’s stance
Senior officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran took a stand on the incident in the first hours of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They blamed the provocation of NATO as the reason for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, while they never used the word “aggression” in their official statements.
In a speech on March 1, Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, without mentioning Russia’s military attack on Ukraine, blamed the United States for the current situation in the country and claimed: “Ukraine fell victim to the US crisis-making policy.” Referring to the current situation in Ukraine and Afghanistan, Ali Khamenei called the support of Western governments for their “proxy governments” a “mirage” and said “Those who rely on the United States should learn from this lesson and understand this.”
The presidents of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation addressed the issue in a telephone call on February 24. In this conversation, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stressed that “NATO’s expansion to the east is what creates tensions”. He said “NATO expansion is a serious threat to the stability and security of independent countries in different regions.” He expressed hope that what is happening will benefit the nations involved and the region.
While media reports from Ukraine show that many Ukrainians are actively participating in the defense of their country, Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, claimed that the people of Ukraine did not support their government and alleged that “had the people entered the scene, the government and the people of Ukraine would not be in such a situation.”
Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, tweeted on the second day of the conflict in Ukraine and the crisis in Ukraine: “Nothing is more hateful than war, but when the West seeks to strike at national security in various ways, it is actually directly responsible for wars and crises formed to counter the strategy of the West.”
Working together to circumvent sanctions
The foreign ministers of Iran and Russia, who were in China to attend a conference of Afghanistan’s neighbors, met on March 30. During the meeting, Lavrov said Moscow was working with Iran to circumvent Western sanctions.
Reports of cooperation between the two countries to circumvent sanctions have been released for some time. The Telegraph reported on March 23, quoting officials, that Iran had secretly pledged to help Russia circumvent sanctions in exchange for Moscow’s support for the new nuclear deal.
But cooperation between the two countries to circumvent sanctions is not limited to economic matters. According to the Guardian on April 12, Russia, with the help of Iranian arms smuggling networks, receives ammunition and military hardware from Iraq for its military operations in Ukraine.
“RPGs and anti-tank missiles, as well as Brazilian-designed rocket launcher systems, have been dispatched to Russia from Iraq as Moscow’s campaign has faltered in the last month, the Guardian has learned. And an Iranian-made Bavar 373 missile system, similar to the Russian S-300, has been donated to Moscow by the authorities in Tehran.
Using the weapons-trafficking underworld would signal a dramatic shift in Russian strategy as Moscow is forced to lean on Iran, its military ally in Syria, after new sanctions triggered by the invasion of Ukraine…”
Nuclear talks
After weeks of intense negotiations, the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5 + 1 was about to be renewed. Bagheri, the head of the Iranian negotiators, arrived in Tehran on February 23 to return to Vienna on February 26 with Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian to sign the agreement. At that time, the Iranian regime had not yet demanded that the signing of the agreement be conditional on the withdrawal of the Revolutionary Guards from the US State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list. But on February 24, Russia invades Ukraine, and at the same time, the Iranian regime puts a tough demand on the table: The US should wipe IRGC form the FTO list. If accepted, this would leave the IRGC more leeway in a growing regional intervention and so putting more pressure on the West and regional players.
Russian negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov, who had previously said publicly that Russia should be exempt from sanctions in dealing with Iran and prevented the talks from progressing, finally said that Russia would abide by the sanctions imposed on Iran so as not to tarnish Russia’s image. Instead, talks were halted by a new request from Iran to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the FTO list.
Gas and oil leverage against Europe and preparing the invasion of Ukraine
The attack on Ukraine was not decided overnight. Russia wanted to force the West to remain silent or fail to react appropriately when attacking Ukraine by the leverage of oil and gas exports to Europe.
The analytical news site Oil Price had previously said that under a 20-year agreement with Iran, Russia could have control on the sale of Iranian gas. In other words, according to one of the provisions of the 20-year agreement with Russia, Iran has accepted that Russia influence the Iranian gas market and determine at what price and to which countries Iran will sell gas.
On the third day of the war with Ukraine, Russia threatened to cut off fuel supplies to Europe. At the same time, some analysts argued that if a nuclear deal was reached with Iran, it could also save Europe from a fuel crisis and thus allow Iran to recover from a budget deficit and reorganize its faltering economy. This statement comes at a time when it is unlikely that Russia would easily lose its trump card against Europe.
On the other hand, some Western analysts have raised a new speculation about Iran, saying that a few years ago Iran deliberately withdrew from the European gas market to pave the way for Russia to put pressure on Europe in the field of energy. We saw this at the time of the invasion of Ukraine.
Mehrdad Emadi, an EU economic adviser, had previously said that Europe had already planned to invest in Iranian gas projects in 2016 to buy gas from the country and reduce its dependence on Russia. The United States had also acknowledged that it was in Europe’s interest to issue gas licenses from Iran, but suddenly the situation escalated to the point where the West stated that Iran was unwilling to cooperate and was pursuing Russia’s energy policies.
Iran has many economic problems while having the second largest known natural gas reserves in the world. More than half of Iran’s population is living under the absolute poverty line, but Iran does not extract its share of gas. The Iranian theocracy does not follow national interests but its own Islamist and fundamentalist agenda.
Oil Price also explains that Iran, with the discovery of a new gas field, has the capacity to supply 20% of European gas. The Chalous gas field could pose a serious and geopolitical threat to Russia’s dominant role in the European gas market.
Russia has always tried not to let Iranian gas flow into Europe. Under no circumstances does Russia want Iran to enter the European energy market. Because if Iran enters the European energy market, Russia’s authority in Europe will be damaged.
On the third day of its entry into Ukraine, Russia officially threatened to cut off its gas exports to Europe. The Russian threat prompted Germany to suspend new sanctions against Russia. It was then that a serious speculation arose in the inter-European talks. That was, perhaps a few years ago, Iran “consciously” withdrew from the European gas market in order to increase Moscow’s ability to increase pressure on Europe. In this speculation, Iran may have helped Moscow to cripple Europe through energy means, so that Europe would not be able to react strongly to Russia’s campaign to occupy Ukraine.
In recent days, Europe’s view of Iran has changed dramatically. Now Europe is faced with a major question in the case of Iran: Was Iran a secret ally of Russia in the Ukraine affair? If the answer to this question is yes, another question arises: What are the goals of the main decision-maker in Tehran, who is the supreme leader, who wanted an open hand in adopting harsher policies by bringing to power Ebrahim Raisi last June?
Prior to this, Europe viewed Iran as a country whose regional influence, long-range missile production, and nuclear project not only destabilized the region, but also posed a threat to Europe through the development of Islamism and fundamentalism. But now the fear is that Iran should become Moscow’s sword in the region.
Iran-Russia political cooperation and its effects on the geopolitics of the region
This cooperation has led the Arab countries to enter into important agreements with Russia to keep it away from Iran. Cooperation between Iran and Russia, however, does not end with geopolitical cooperation, but also continues in the political sphere. Such cooperation can be witnessed in the lack of condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine, which was officially branded the result of NATO provocations, and Iran’s negative vote for Russia’s withdrawal from the Human Rights Council, as well as Russia’s negative vote to extend the UN Special Rapporteur for human rights’ mission on Iran.
While the Iranian society has become a powder barrel, Khamenei is in a state of internal and global isolation. Unable to resolve his internal affairs, the mullahs’ supreme leader wants to exploit the look to the “East” and enmity towards the United States and the West to create a rift in the P5 + 1 so that, for example, the issue of Iran does not go to the Security Council or the trigger mechanism against Iran would not be used in the UN.
Conclusion
The alliance between Iran and Russia is based on the two countries’ interests in enmity toward the West. The notion that concessions to Iran can break this alliance is naive. Since Ebrahim Raisi took office, Khamenei has outlined his strategy of overcoming international isolation and continuing subversive activities in the region with the “Look East” policy. To neutralize this alliance, the pressure on Iran must be increased as well as sanctions against Russia. This pressure must be both economic and political. In other words, in addition to sanctions related to the nuclear program, sanctions against Iran should include those related to terrorism and human rights violations in Iran. In the political field, too, Europe must actively support the Iranian opposition and its quest for freedom and democracy.